000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122238
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE AXIS AND 
ALONG COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120-180 NM OF WAVE AXIS AND INTERSECTION OF 
ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 10 KT HAS 1010 MB LOW PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT NOT ADVERSE BUT NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W MOVING W AT 15 KT HAS ENTERED VERY DRY 
AIR MASS AND LOST MOST OF ITS CONVECTION.  PREVIOUS LOW PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE CANNOT BE ANY LONGER IDENTIFIED. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 12N86W  13N105W  14N124W  9N131W  13N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 97W TO 107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS  
FROM 107W TO 117WW. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N139W TO 
23N140W KEEPS AIR MASS N OF 12N W OF 123W VERY DRY...NOT EVEN 
THE ITCZ IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ANY CONVECTION UNDER THESE 
CONDITIONS.  NARROW TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED 
FROM W COAST U.S. SW INTO DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N124W TO 
14N135W.  ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 22N96W AND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
24N84W HAVE SWATH OF MOIST FLOW CROSSING YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO  
E PAC FEEDING ARRAY OF TROPICAL WAVES E OF 105W.    

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 20N110W. 
NEW RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR 31N131W HAS KEPT NE TRADES LIGHT.  

$$
WALLY BARNES