000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 14N124W EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W 
S OF 20N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. ALTHOUGH ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO A  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY...POSSIBILITY OF SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING 
IS NOT DISCARDED.  SYSTEM MOVING INTO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 10 MPH.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W EXTENDING FROM 6N TO 20N HAS 
EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 18N106W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.  MOST 
OF ITS STRONG CONVECTION WELL N OF CIRCULATION CENTER.  STRONG 
S UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER AREA AND ITS PROXIMITY TO COOL 
SST GIVES SYSTEM LITTLE CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 13N TO 4N MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 
112W CONFINED TO ITCZ AXIS.  SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM FAVORABLE 
UPPER ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LOSE STRENGTH WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W  10N86W  10N95W  15N105W  10N115W  14N124W 
10N136W  10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR AND ALONG 
TROPICAL WAVES. 

...DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF AREA EXTENDS RIDGE 
SE TO 17N119W.  FAIRLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE 
CURTAILS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
RIDGE AND 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSE 
MODERATE NW WIND FLOW ALONG COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
8 FT.  SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF PRIOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
REMAINS ALONG 135W FROM 18N TO 26N. 

UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N140W HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DIG S TO 15N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT N OF 15N W OF 133W AS 
AIR SUBSIDES UNDER CONVERGING FLOW BETWEEN TROUGH AND MID-UPPER 
LEVEL DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED 
19N122W COVERS MOST OF REMAINING E EPAC EXTENDING DRY AIR MASS N 
OF 20N W OF 113W.  RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  THIS ONE SUPPLIES PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND GOOD 
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO LOW PRES AT 18N106W TO MAINTAIN HEFTY 
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH DRIFTING INTO MORE STABLE AIR WHICH WILL 
EVENTUALLY DOOM SYSTEM.  SHARP TURNING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 
92W COMPLETES UPPER LEVEL PICTURE OVER E PAC.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALON COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS TROUGH 
ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO ERN SECTIONS 
OF BASIN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES