000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SFC LOW NEAR 14N120W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 119W/120W S OF 19N. THE LOW CENTER IS N OF OF THE MAIN 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM 
COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS WITHIN 50 NM OF 13N120W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S MEXICO TO 6N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
IT IS MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 
19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.     

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15  
KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 
102W AND 110W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 14N95W 11N102W 14N115W 12N128W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 
88W AND 86W...AND BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
NEAR 12N126W AND 10N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE   
TO NEAR 20N110W. MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH NO 
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO 
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO. 
AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24 HOURS...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. 
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE FROM 20N TO 
30N W OF 120W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 130W/131W FROM 16N TO 25N. 
THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SFC LOW. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 
20N. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 20N THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE 
FEATURES. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SLY 
WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FOUND S OF 7S AND WEST 
120W.   

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO COVERS THE EPAC E OF 115W. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST FROM 16N ALL THE WAY 
NORTH TO 21N AS WELL AS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WHERE THERE IS 
AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ELY 
UPPER WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EPAC. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N115W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA. DRY AIR...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND N OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W.     

$$
GR