000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF GUATEMALA ALONG 90W/91W MOVING W 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE E 
PACIFIC. WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE WAVE WEAKENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE 
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN ELY SHEAR ALOFT WHICH WOULD LIMIT ITS CHANCES FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N118W MOVING 
W 10-12 KT. POSITION OF LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE LOW 
ITSELF MAY ACTUALLY BE ELLIPTICALLY ORIENTED ALONG A SW-NE AXIS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE LOW AND SHEARED TO 
THE WSW WITHIN 180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG ELY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE 
LIMITED BY COOL SSTS NW OF THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N82W 12N102W 11N108W 15N115W 
12N127W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 85W...WITHIN 120-150 
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N138W HAS DRIFTED TO 
THE NW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON 
THE AREA W OF 130W. SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 
129W/130W TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND ANOTHER MUCH 
LARGER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. 
THIS ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE BUILDING WWD AND AS SUCH IS 
ALLOWING THE SHEARED TROUGH TO BEGIN RETROGRADING TO THE W. 
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED NW OF 
LINE 30N120W 12N140W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE E PACIFIC ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WWD.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL N OF AREA PRODUCING 
MODERATE TRADES N OF 14N W OF 130W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL 
MOVING N INTO E PAC S OF 8N FROM 95W-110W THEN EXPANDS TO 120W 
IN 24-36 HOURS. 

$$
COBB