000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK CENTERED AT 13.6N 131.3W AT 2100 UTC 
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MOVING W AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 GUSTS TO 25 KT.  ERICK HAS WEAKENED IN THE 
PAST 6 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE LOW WITHIN 
24 HOURS.  ERICK IS UNDER ELY SHEAR ALOFT WHICH KEEPS ITS 
CONVECTION SEPARATED FROM ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W 
AND 134W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF EL SALVADOR ALONG 89W TO 5N89W MOVING W AT 
20 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.   

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 21N TO 9N MOVING W 10 KT.  MOST 
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...11N86W  9N100W  16N115W  14N131W  
9N140W.  IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL 
WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF COSTA RICA 
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 
106W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 22N136W COVERS THE NW 
SECTION OF BASIN AND MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS N OF ITCZ TO 30N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W.  FURTHER E...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 25N130W WITH DRY AIR MASS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.  

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN SEA AT 20N83W IS PRODUCING 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALONG SRN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION 
DEBRIS CARRIED INTO E PAC FEEDING ITCZ E OF 100W.  

ON THE SURFACE...TRPCL ST0RM ERICK AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE.  OTHERWISE...A 
WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N126W 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA AT 
44N145W MAINTAINS MODERATE TRADES N OF 20N W OF 130W.  

$$
FORMOSA