000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 15.2N 137.5W AT 18/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS EXPOSED 
NE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST OF CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 14N138W. 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83.5W TO THE N OF 4N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED BETWEEN 82W AND 90W WITH THE 
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 15 NM OF 12N89W. 
  
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106.5W N OF 3N MOVING W AT 15 KT. UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES ARE MASKING THE AXIS OF THE WAVE WITH CONVECTION 
ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N105W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 3N TO 17N HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED AT 11N121W WITH ONLY A FEW 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SAME POINT.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 8N87W 15N92W 17N102W 12N120W 
15N124W 7N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED N OF 5N E OF 96W AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
18N102W 10N118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS ESTIMATED 
ALONG 32N126W 26N130W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LIES ALONG 
32N128W 27N138W...AND APPEARS TO BE STALLING ATTM. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N111W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 24N119W. A SURFACE HIGH PRES IS AT 25N125W 
1021 MB. 

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA EXTENDS S INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N98W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF 
OVER OLD MEXICO AT 25N103W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE E...AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N94W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W 5N95W...OTHERWISE A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 4S RESULTS IN GENERALLY NE 
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TROPICAL PAC WATERS TO THE S OF 15N AND E 
OF 115W.  ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S WITH SOME CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS CENTERED NEAR
16N105W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

$$
NELSON