000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162208 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE COSME AT 14.5N 131.4W AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. COSME REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD WRAP-AROUND DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALS... NEVERTHELESS SST HAS DECREASED AND SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY WEAKEN IT WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS. SEE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS N OF 11N WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS... CONCENTRATED OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTION ENHANCED BY GOOD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE AROUND UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 3N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 250 NM OF AXIS FROM 7N-13N. NO ORGANIZATION NOTED AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IS MOVING INTO A LESS ADVERSE AREA AHEAD OF IT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W 15N98W 12N106W 12N114W 16N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 5N-10N E OF 88W AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 92W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 120W-125W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND HURRICANE COSME DESCRIBED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N122W TO 25N140W BRINGS DRIER AIR MASS AND STRONGER UPPER WESTERLIES N OF 20N W OF 110W. WEAKENING SMALL RIDGE S OF 20N W OF 120W HELPS SUPPORT COSME DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DISPLACED AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ENTERS AREA TO REINFORCE THE ONE MENTIONED ABOVE. THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST FLING IN COSME LIFE SPAN. SHARP RIDGE ALONG 109W N OF 20N EXTENDS DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT TO THE MEXICAN COAST. HEALTHY UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ITS BASE TO 16N100W PRODUCING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT THAT IS BOOSTING TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOTS OF CONVECTION DEBRIS IS ADVECTED ALOFT FROM E PAC INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SUSPECTED VORTICITY CENTER OVER TEHUANTEPEC IS BEING MONITORED. AT THE SURFACE... HURRICANE COSME SHINES AS THE MAIN FEATURE IN E PAC BASIN IS DISCUSSED ABOVE. REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER T.D. 5-E HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY AND NO LONGER FOLLOWED. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE REMAIN THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS. WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 20N W OF 110W. HIGH PRES 1024 MB CENTER AT 31N134W REBUILDS INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MOISTURE LADEN MODERATE S WINDS ATTRACTED TO ITCZ CROSS THE EQUATOR BRINGING MODERATE SWELLS S OF 10N FROM 100W-115W. $$ WALLY BARNES