000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM COSME AT 14.3N 130.5W AT 16/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 
AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 
COSME MAY BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. 
THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY A MORE STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. SEE 
LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 93W-103W...MOST 
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W FROM 3N TO 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 250NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 
7N-13N. NO ORGANIZATION NOTED. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W 13N95W 11N105W 15N117W 10N133W 6N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE N OF 5N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
11N-16N BETWEEN 119W-124W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
WAVES AND TROPICAL STORM COSME DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM COSME CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS THIS MORNING AS 
DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. IT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO 
FIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 5-E...AS WHATEVER IS LEFT CONTINUES TO GET ABSORBED 
INTO THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION OF COSME. PERHAPS SOME OF THE 
LEFTOVER VORTICITY COULD BE TIED TO THE 1009 MB CIRCULATION 
NOTED NEAR 16N119W. OTHERWISE THE TROPICAL EPAC SFC PATTERN IS 
DOMINATED BY THE PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE...WITH THE ONE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FAR THE 
MOST ACTIVE. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR NE PAC OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING 
DOMINATES N OF 20N W OF 110W...AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N134W. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF NEAR 20 KT NW 
WINDS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA. 

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS W AND SW OF SRN CALIFORNIA ALONG 31N125W 
25N133W. THIS IS JUST N OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT LIES TO THE N OF 
TROPICAL STORM COSME. MID TO UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED FROM 
8N-24N BETWEEN 109W-120W. UPPER RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS HELPING 
TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. NE UPPER 
FLOW OVER THE AREA E OF 103W IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE OVER 
THIS CONVECTION AND OTHER ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE 
SW.  

$$
MCW