000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 5N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-15N BETWEEN 94W-98W...DISPLACED W OF THE AXIS WITH UPPER E TO 
NE FLOW OVER THE AREA. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W N OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD 
ZONE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT 
THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED MAINLY FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 
116W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 117W-122W...BUT IS NOT ORGANIZED. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N90W 12N102W 10N111W 
12N117W 10N125W 12N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-91W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ARE FROM 
9N-19N BETWEEN 94W-109W...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVES AS NOTED ABOVE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60NM N 
AND 120NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 28N123W BUT OVERALL RIDGING IN 
THE EPAC REMAINS WEAK. THE WEAKNESS IN THE GRADIENT IS DUE TO 
WEAK SFC TROUGHING ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N128W TO 
27N133W...AND THE REMNANT TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 4-E ALONG 23N127W 18N128W. THE RELAXED GRADIENT HAS 
LED TO MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W EXCEPT FOR 
ACCELERATED 20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. MANY OF THE MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SPIN THINGS UP IN THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN THE 
RECENT TRACK RECORD AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BOTH RECENT QUIKSCAT 
AND ASCAT PASSES REVEALED A SMALL PAPAGAYO EVENT 
UNDERWAY...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND RELAX INTO SAT. 

ALOFT...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA. UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 125W ALONG 17N IS SUPPORTING VERY DRY AIR 
FROM 13N-25N W OF 125W. MID TO UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED 
NEAR 20N115W. OFFSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURE AND THE UPPER 
HIGH OVER NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE W OF BAJA TO 
120W. UPPER E TO NE FLOW GENERALLY DOMINATES THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC...SPREADING MOISTURE OVER CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ AND 
TROPICAL WAVES TO THE W/SW. UPPER FLOW IS MORE NLY JUST OFF THE 
MEXICO COAST NEAR 105W WITH SOME GENTLE TROUGHING EVIDENT. 

$$
WILLIS