000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 8 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW 
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13N115W AND CONVECTION IS TRYING TO 
GET BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE SE QUADRANT. OTHER CONVECTION N OF 
THE CENTER REMAINS SCATTERED. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF THE CIRCULATION.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL 
CIRCULATION POSSIBLY NOT ON THE SURFACE IS NEAR 8N136W WITH 
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. A LINE OF 
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 13N126W TO 11N134W. THE TWO 
SYSTEMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND MAY BE INDEPENDENT 
OF EACH OTHER.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 9N93W 12N104W 13N115W 11N132W 
8N140W. SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 4N78W TO 7N78W 
TO 9N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N87W 
TO 8N96W TO 8N101W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
14N115W TO 11N122W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
8N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW CONUS SWWD TO 22N140W. WEAK LOW 
CENTER AT MID LEVELS EMBEDDED IN RIDGE JUST OFF SW BAJA COAST 
NEAR 26N114W WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. ELY MID LEVEL 
WINDS S OF 20N WITH EMBEDDED TROUGH ALONG 116W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LOW OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N99W MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A TRPL DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N114W WAS MOVING SLOWLY WWD. 
NUMEROUS CONVECTION TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED BUT PROCESS IS SLOW. 
ELSEWHERE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED NW OF AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. NE TRADES CONFINED TO N OF 10N W OF 
120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT. GAP WINDS 
W OF NICARAGUA HAVE DIMINISHED TONIGHT AND SSMI AND QUIKSCAT 
SHOW ONLY 10 TO 15 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS MOSTLY 15 TO 
20 KT..STRONGER WHERE CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG ITCZ. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING POSITION BUT WILL WEAKEN 
SOME. INVERTED TROUGHING ON S SIDE OF RIDGE FROM SRN BAJA SW TO 
12N120W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 MARINERS ADVISED TO WATCH 
FOR TRPL DEVELOPMENT WITH SYSTEM NEAR 13N115W. WHILE GFS MODEL 
DOESN'T DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM..THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO 
DEVELOP. ALL OTHER FEATURES REMAIN THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL RIDGE SPLITS IN TWO WITH ONE 
CENTER REMAINING OVER THE SW CONUS AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 
25N138W. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 34N127W 
WHILE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA COAST 
SW TO 15N130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 ALL ATTENTION WILL REMAIN ON 
POSSIBLE TRPL DEVELOPMENT WITH SYSTEM MOVING WWD NEAR 14N120W. 
SOME INCREASE IN SLY WINDS S OF 10N AND INCREASE IN SLY SWELL W 
OF 100W..OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

$$
RRG