000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 5 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ERUPTING ALONG AND JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY FROM 7N
TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. VISUAL METSAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRYING TO ORGANIZE 
NEAR 8N110W...AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FURTHER W NEAR 8N 
112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 
8N-13N BETWEEN 112W-115W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. EXCEPT FOR A 
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 12N130W...THIS WAVE LACKS 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N94W 10N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER ERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND 
MEXICO WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING W...PRODUCING NLY DIVERGENT FLOW 
FROM SRN MEXICO SWD. THE FLOW IS W/NWLY E OF 99W AND ELY W OF 
99W...FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE 
BETWEEN 93W-107W AIDED BY TROPICAL WAVE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH 
IS LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO AND IS PULLING SOME DRIER AIR SWD 
ACROSS THE W SIDE OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED JUST SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N112W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO NEAR 12N130W. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS E OF 130W WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL 
TROPICAL WAVES. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT CLIPS 
THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH 
ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 135W S OF 20N. A LARGE AREA 
OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 125W DUE TO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 
THESE TROUGHS.

$$
MUNDELL