000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS 10N86W 12N95W 10N110W 10N126W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
92W AND 96W...WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 110W...AND 
ALSO FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 


DISCUSSION...
 

UPPER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF 
THE REGION FROM 30N137 TO 27N127W TO 29N114W.  A WEAK TUTT AXIS 
IS SEEN FROM 26N113W TO 24N125.  A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N107W.  ANOTHER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ LIES ALONG 10N140W TO 16N115W.

LOW LEVELS...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N121W THEN 
CONTINUES SW TO 24N140W ACCOMPANIED BY A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW 
CLOUDS. 

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS ALONG 126W 
FROM 7N TO 15N.  CONVECTION FLARED UP ALONG THE TROUGH EARLIER 
TODAY BUT IS CURRENTLY WAINING.  HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL 
VORTICITY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING 
WESTWARD AROUND 8 KT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NONE OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY 
BECAUSE OF DRY STABLE AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM.  VERTICAL SHEAR 
REMAINS QUITE LOW...SO THAT HAS NOT BEEN INHIBITING 
REDEVELOPMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA