000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151007
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W  9N97W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90 NM FROM AXIS FROM 102W TO 126W AND WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM 
8N93W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 10N91W MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER 
WIND FLOW ALOFT E OF 120W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL N OF AREA 
HAS FLATTENED FLOW W OF 120W INTO QUASI-ZONAL.  JET CORE OF 95 
KT HELPS MOVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO E PAC N OF 15N W OF 115W.

ANTICYCLONE HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND  W TO 120W WITH FLOW 
ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ INTO 
CENTRAL AND SRN MEXICO.  ITCZ CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY 
INCREASED ALONG 115W UNDER AREA OF DIFFLUENT PATTERN. 
REMAINDER OF E PAC S OF 8N E OF 102W REMAINS FAIRLY DRY UNDER 
ANTICYCLONE.  

AT THE SURFACE...    
HIGH PRES 1027 MB CENTER AT 37N135W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
20N113W.  RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES S DECREASING NELY TRADES  
WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS. 

GAP WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WEAKEN WITHIN 18 HRS AS 
FLOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO DIMINISHES WITH SURFACE TROUGH FORMING 
IN SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLY BARNES