000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 12N110W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE POINTS 8N89.5W AND 11.8N108.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 
11N114.8W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO N OF 24N EAST OF 122W. 
THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
AND IS ALSO CLEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION IS ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE U.S. 
MEXICAN BORDER ALONG 111W.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN 
PLACE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN. 

A BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 
A LINE 20N100W TO 15N140W. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ IS PROVIDING UPPER 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS IN THIS AREA FROM 
105W TO 132W.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS ALSO SUPPLYING UPPER MOISTURE 
AND CLOUDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 90W. THESE CLOUDS ARE 
ADVECTING OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS FROM NICARAGUA 
SOUTHWARD.

AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE.

$$
LL