000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...4N77W  9N89W  8N100W  8N117W  3N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 89W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING LAST 24 
HRS AND HAS NOW ERODED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WAS IN PLACE E OF 
130W.  VORTEX BRINGING DRY AIR MASS AND CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH 
NOT VERY STRONG...ALOFT W OF 130W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS 
FROM VORTEX TO 26N126W 25N114W 23N106W WITH DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS. WEAK JET CORE 90 KT S OF TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING 
ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE INTO MID LATITUDES BUT TROUGH AXIS KEEPS 
IT S OF 20N W OF 110W.   
 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 11N106W STRETCHES NE INTO GULF OF 
MEXICO MAINTAINING ENTIRE AREA E OF 105W QUITE DRY WITH MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THERE ARE QUESTIONS WHETHER COLD FRONT 
RUNNING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO 
DISPLACE RIDGE AS GFS SOLUTION INDICATES OR WILL IT STALL AS 
RIDGE HOLDS IT PLACE IN ERN GULF.  

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB AT 33N150W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
13N103W CURTAILING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT N OF 13N W OF 105W.  USUAL 
TRADES REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD BUT 
SWELL TRAINS FROM BOTH SIDES...10-15 FT FROM THE NW AND 8-9 FT 
FROM THE SW SNEAK INTO E PAC W OF 115W.

$$
WALLY BARNES