000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH A BROAD 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 120W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH WITH RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 9N129W. WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM 32N131W TO 
27N130W. A 90-100 KT JET STREAM WITH AXIS FROM 19N140W 23N123W 
TO 19N112W...BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE JET 
W OF 120W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO S OF A STRONG 
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. UPPER 
CONFLUENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE STREAMING INTO NW MEXICO...PRODUCING MAINLY 
CLOUD-FREE SKIES N OF 23N E OF 125W EXCEPT FOR A FEW CIRRUS OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE EQUATOR AT 100W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 15N E OF 105W. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC IS N OF 10N W OF 112W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 
15N W OF 125W. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NE MEXICO FROM NEAR 
LAREDO TO JUST W OF EL PASO TEXAS.

$$
DGS