000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N90W 4N100W 4N110W 4N120W 
3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-90.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ALONG 130W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N134W. 
THE RIDGE EXTENDS WELL NNE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR THE NW 
U.S. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING 
RAPIDLY EWD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE RIDGE FROM 13N-23N EXTENDING 
EWD TO 120W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FROM 23N-29N W OF 
125W AND ALSO N OF 20N E OF 125W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO SWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO SW TO 20N112W. 
THIS TROUGH IS TIED TO A PERSISTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER 
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A JET STREAM BRANCH 
EXETNDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND 
TO TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES THAT JET 
CORE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 70-80 KT. FAIRLY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WITHIN THE 
SUBSIDENCE AREA.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW 
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA THEN NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
NWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...CONTINUING WELL N ACROSS THE 
MID-WEST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.

RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N127W
24N118W TO 17N108W. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTER OF 1027 MB IS N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N132W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WWD N OF 16N 
OF 130W...AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 121W-1330. A 1001 MB LOW IS 
OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 27N103W...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 
BROAD LOW PRES OVER MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE 
E PORTION OF THE PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN NWLY WINDS TO 20 KT 
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE 
WINDS...HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 
ABOUT 30 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND 
MOVES SWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY EXPERIENCE
BRIEF SURGE OF NE 20 KT WINDS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 30 HOURS 
LASTING INTO PERHAPS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THE MARINE FRONT...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE E OF NEW ZEALAND HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST TWO 
LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS WHICH ARE HEADING NE TOWARDS THE COASTS 
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FIRST SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE COAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE SECOND LIKELY TO ARRIVE 
LATE MON. N BOTH EPISODES...WAVE PERIODS WILL BE LONG 
ENOUGH...NEAR 16SEC...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
ESPECIALLY ON SW-FACING BEACHES FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
AGUIRRE