000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 4N92W 4N105W 4N120W 3N130W
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N138W WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXTENDING N AND CRESTING OVER NW CONUS. A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND EXTENDS ALONG 137W N OF 
12N. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
E 20-25 KT IS NEAR 26N1138W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE 
TROUGH WHILE A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED E OF THE TROUGH 
AND ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N138W 32N137W. FURTHER E...A BROAD 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA 
THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 33N103W AND 21N114W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 15N118W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 21N113W...OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 116W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN. A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ W OF
101W IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N125W
TO 8N114W TO 10N107W AND NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE FAR TROPICAL E PAC ALONG 82W
N OF 4N. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 8N E OF 105W 
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
84W-90W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS 
STATIONARY NEAR 35N133W WITH BROAD HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BEGIN 
TUE MORNING...AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
BY TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 20 KT ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXTEND N TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
FONSECA. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 36 HRS AND
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO WED NIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL WIND
SPEED OF 30 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE 
NEXT 18-36 HRS AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS.

$$
AGUIRRE