000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG  12N79W  6N85W  4N107W  5N115W  3N137W  3N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
RIDGING DEVELOPING JUST W OF LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 32N121W TO 7N135W.  SW FLOW E OF TROUGH AXIS 
CARRIES 90 KT JET ADVECTING COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO UNTO S TIP OF TEXAS AND GULF OF MEXICO WHERE HEALTHY HIGH 
PRES RIDGE CURTAILS DEVELOPMENT.

DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TROUGH IS ANTICYCLONE AT 9N 
97W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING CHARACTERISTIC DRY AIR MASS INFLUENCE 
OVER ENTIRE E PAC AREA E OF 110W AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CARIBBEAN BASINS.    

AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W LOSING UPPER SUPPORT AS SHORT 
WAVE TO THE N RACES NE AWAY FROM SYSTEM.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER LEFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.

HIGH PRES RIDGE SE OF ABOVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 15N115W  
KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY EXCEPT ON SRN PERIPHERY WHERE ITCZ TAKES 
ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 91W TO 103W.  TRADES REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH 
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. 

WIND AND SEAS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUBSIDING QUICKLY AND 
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE ANYTIME NOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
NEAR 20 KTS AS LONG AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL IN GULF OF 
MEXICO.  GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO SHOULD START DIMINISHING 
WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS AS CARIBBEAN BASIN GRADIENT RELAXES.

$$
WALLY BARNES