000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 8N84W 4N96W 7N120W 7N134W 
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 5N83W 6N100W 4N107W.

 
...DISCUSSION...

A UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 28N142W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S 
ALONG 25N140W 14N138W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N91W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 15N120W.  A FEW 
TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED AT 24N138W AND 18N141W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THESE CLUSTERS IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SID E OF LINE 18N140W TO BEYOND 30N136W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 133W AND 149W IS ADVECTED N 
WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N132W 25N125W THEN THE 
MOISTURE PLUME TURNS E IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW ALL WITHIN 360 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 27N114W 28N95W TO 30N79W WHERE IT SPLITS.   

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT EARLY SAT NIGHT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 
SUNRISE SUN AND STORM FORCE BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS NEAR 
HURRICANE FORCE A POSSIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE MON. NE WINDS 20 KT 
IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL SURGE TO 25 KT THROUGH SUN THEN 
INCREASE OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 91W BY SUNRISE MON 
WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE NEAR 11N87W BY MIDDAY MON. N WINDS 
INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF OF PANAMA MIDDAY MON. GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT THEN 
DIMINISH.    

$$
NELSON