000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230359
TWDEP 

8TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N88W 2N98W 7N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 6N110W 8N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 8N131W 5N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PAC WITH ITS MEAN AXIS 
S OF 35N ALONG 123W TO A BASE NEAR 23N121W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N124W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO A BASE NEAR 24N120W. BOTH THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE 
BEGINNING TO LIFT NE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS 
STALLING ALONG 32N119W 24N140W WITH HIGH PRES BRIDGING THROUGH 
THE FRONT FROM A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N150W.  

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ALONG THE W BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH A CREST AMPLIFYING N ALONG POINTS 20N144W 25N137W 23N133W. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 17N92W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W 
INTO THE E PAC TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N120W...WITH UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 108W AND 121W.  

DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN ROUGHLY 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 32N107W 26N125W 29N143W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 
149W...IS NOTED FROM 3N TO 21N BETWEEN 127W AND 147W AND 
CONTINUES NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 15N130W TO 
BEYOND 32N99W. 
 
GAP WINDS...
NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH FRI 
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SAT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SUPPORT NW 
20 TO 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
NEAR 8 FT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SOME REFRACTIVE 
SWELL ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE NW SWELL.

$$
NELSON