000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LINE 3N78W 4N99W 5N108W 
5.5114W 5N121W 4N131W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
5.3N101.8W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF A 
LINE FROM 25N105W TO 15N140W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO AND IS MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDS FROM 17N135W ENEWD THROUGH 22N135W WRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 120-140 KT. THIS JTST WAS ADVECTING A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE 
E0CENTRAL PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE TROUGH AREA 
AND THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH ARE CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS. 

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W.
A 1031 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N143W. 

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
TO 25 KT THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN 48 HOURS. THE PANAMA WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 36 HOURS. ALSO GAP WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB