000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190415
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 1N79W 3N87W 1N95W 5N120W 
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
85W AND 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
W OF 110W...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A SHARP MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW COAST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N122W SWWD THROUGH 27N130W TO 
25N146W. TROUGH WAS MOVING SE 15-20 KT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 130W AND 150W. 
TROUGH EJECTED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH WAS NEAR BAJA 
CALIFORNIA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NWD INTO ARIZONA AND UTAH. 
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE TROPICS W OF 
110W WITH SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED FROM 18N140W ENEWD THROUGH 23N125W 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 125-140 KT. 

E OF 110W...
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATED THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND EXTENDED FROM AN 
EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 12N88W THROUGH 
12N100W 10N110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC N OF 10N. DIFFLUENT FLOW SW OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE WAS MAINTAINING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 91W WITH A MUCH LARGER AREA OF 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WHICH ESSENTIALLY COVERED 
THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. 

SURFACE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB SFC LOW OFF LOS ANGELES SWD TO 27N121W. 
ELSEWHERE A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W. 

GAP WINDS...
AS OF 0400 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT 
STORM EVENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE 
WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BEST 
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM FORCE 50 KT WINDS STILL EXIST 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR 
ANOTHER 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 
HOURS. 

ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT DATA WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION...A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN MZGK7 REPORTED NE WINDS OF 25 KT 
AT 0000 UTC WHILE LOCATED OVER 200 NM WSW OF THE GULF. NWP 
MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE COMMENCED IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR 
SO THEN WEAKEN. 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB