000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 5N77W 2N85W 4N105W 
6N120W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 
8.5N FROM 86W TO 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 5N FROM 86W 
TO 91.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 120W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
W OF 110W...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA WITH A SHARP MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 33N125W SWWD THROUGH 25N135 TO 25N145W. TROUGH 
WAS MOVING SE 15-20 KT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS 
INDICATED FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 130W. TROUGH WAS ALSO EJECTING A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH WAS NEAR BAJA NWD INTO CALIFORNIA AND 
ARIZONA. MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N121W DOMINATED THE 
TROPICS W OF 110W WITH SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED. 
AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED FROM 19N140W ENEWD THROUGH 
23N125W SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NRN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 120-140 KT. 

E OF 110W...
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATED THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND EXTENDED FROM 
AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER PANAMA WWD THROUGH 13N95W 10N
110W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC N OF 10N. DIFFLUENT FLOW SW OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE WAS MAINTAINING SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W.  

SURFACE...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE NE PORTION OF 
THE AREA. THE FIRST EXTENDED FROM A 1011 MB SFC LOW NEAR 30N114W
SSEWD TO 22N111W...AND THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N119W 
SWWD TO NEAR 23N123W.  ELSEWHERE A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 
19N WEST OF 127W. 

GAP WINDS...
A 1240 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED STORM FORCE 
50-55 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION A SHIP 
WITH CALL SIGN DHER REPORTED 56 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED 90 NM 
S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST 
FOR ANOTHER 9-12 HOURS THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 24-30 
HOURS. 

THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT ALSO INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...AND 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA...ALBEIT BRIEFLY WITHIN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS. 

$$
COBB