000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N78W 5N85W 3N95W 4N110W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 1N90W 
3N99W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N118W.

...DISCUSSION...

BLOCKING PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 35N128W AND A 
WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N129W. THE UPPER LOW 
WAS AT THE TAIL END OF A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED
THROUGH 32N95W 32N115W TO THE UPPER LOW ITSELF. MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 115W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
WRAPPING AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...GENERALLY OVER THE 
AREA S OF 15N W OF 120W. 
 
DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N94W IS AN 
EXTENSION OF A MUCH LARGER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N67W. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS 
INDICATED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY S OF 20N E OF 110W. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
NEAR 5N118W...IS ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER 
RIDGE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N113W 25N100W THEN 
NARROWS IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE AS IT CONTINUES ENE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL BEFORE MERGING WITH 
ANOTHER PLUME OVER THE NW ATLC.   

GAP WINDS...
EARLIER 1244 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 KT
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP AT LEAST A 
MARGINAL GALE GOING THROUGH SUN...THEN RAMP UP WINDS SUN NIGHT 
AND MON WITH THE MORE RELIABLE NAM DEPICTING POTENTIAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS BY SUN NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO/FONSECA...NWP MODELS INDICATE CURRENT 20 KT 
WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND UP TO 30 KT
BY 48 HOURS. NWP MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE GALES SUN NIGHT INTO 
MON. WILL LOOK AT LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN 
THIS FCST.  

GULF OF PANAMA...LATEST MODEL JUST ARRIVING BUT SUGGESTS N WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE SAT AND 20-25 KT SUN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1130 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED AN 
IMPRESSIVE MAX SEA HEIGHT OF 11 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ. SEAS APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL AROUND THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. MODELS DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
TONIGHT.

$$
COBB