000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 4N95W 4.5N105W 5N115W 2N125W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-92W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
FROM THE SW U.S. SW ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO AND NRN BAJA
..AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 29N121W TO 26N127W AND SW INTO
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 22N133W.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SSE
THROUGH 17N131W TO A BASE 5N126W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
HAS BECOME DIFFUSE JUST W OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW 
HRS. TO THE NE A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
35N135W WITH A RIDGE COLLAPSING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1037 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 34N132W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 28N124W 19N117W AND TO
12N109W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 107.5W.
A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 14N130W NE THROUGH 20N127W TO 26N121W.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ARE IN THE RANGE
OF 80-120 KT RANGE...PRIMARILY E OF 122W. OVERCAST MOSTLY MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NEWD ARE WITHIN 400 NM SE
OF THE JET. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY REACHING BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND WRN MEXICO. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WSW IN
THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW PRODUCED BY THE STRONG 
GRADIENT GENERATED BY THE HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA ARE SEEN
FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 124W-136W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
UNDER THE JET AS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
BEING FUNNELED EWD INTO THE REGION IN NW FLOW AROUND THE 
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 22N133W IS PUTTING A CLAMP ON 
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N94W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST NEAR 23N117W. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PRESENT N OF 10N AND E
OF OF 110W TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY 
TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE EARLY FRI MORNING. 
IT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE FRI 
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE 
QUITE SMALL AND THE DURATION ABOUT 10 HOURS WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE SAT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
NE 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
BY FIR AFTERNOON...AND TO 20-30 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRIDGE INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA BY SUNRISE SAT. NLY 
WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 29N IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 8 FT OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PART WITH SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL POSSIBLE FROM THE 
NW INTO FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE