000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON FEB 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 5N90W 4N100W 3N110W 3N120W 4N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 35N130W SWD TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N141W TO 13N145W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 17N TO 23N. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 20.5N. AXIS OF VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CUTTING INTO THE AREA ALONG 16N140W 26N120W CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 27N113W EWD INTO TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CORE SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. STRONG JET WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N. A LARGE WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N118W WITH ASSOCIATED FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 112W-133W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100W-119W. A SHEARED MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE NRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 13N92W 8N105W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA S OF 5N AND E OF 87W. AT THE SFC... HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 105W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH CENTER OF 1034 MB N OF THE AREA 32N140W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...ALTHOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 20N-26N W OF 135W WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC TROUGH EXISTS. THIS COMBINATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PORTION OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LARGE NW SWELLS THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TO DECAY AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD. GAP WINDS... GAP WINDS FROM NE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 48-54 HRS...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (25-35 KT) NEAR 1800 UTC ON FEB.16. ALL OTHER GAPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. $$ AGUIRRE