000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N79W 5N94W 3N110W 5N130W 3N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
97W-111W AND BETWEEN 114W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SFC...
RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W 
EXTENDING SE FROM A 1025MB CENTER NEAR 30N143W. THIS IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME 
AREA...THOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS ARE BEING FELT FROM 20N-26N W OF 
135W WHERE A SFC TROUGH FROM 17N-23N ALONG 138W IS TIGHTENING 
THE GRADIENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED W OF THIS TROUGH AS 
WELL. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NE WINDS 
AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONCE VERY LARGE...LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL THAT WAS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO DECAY AS THE SWELL 
PROPAGATES SE. ELSEWHERE...GAP WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX 
WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA NOW BELOW 20 KT. NE 
WINDS 20 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH TOMORROW 
MORNING...THEN RELAX THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N137W 20N150W. A 
DISTINCT UPPER HIGH IS SPINNING NEAR 7N121W THAT IS SUPPORTING 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 100W. A BAND OF 
UPPER MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES LIES IN THE UPPER 
DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE FROM 14N-27N W OF 
BAJA.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN INTO 
THE NE PACIFIC TO 8N97W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR 
PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTED BY 
UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SLY 
FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER VENEZUELA.  DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO 
THE AREA S OF 6N AND E OF 85W.  

$$
WILLIS