000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 4N88W 3N103W 4N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 111W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 35N138W 32N138W 25N150W WITH 
DRY UPPER AIR NOTED W OF LINE 30N130W 24N1140W. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 30N128W 22N140W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE N OF 28N. A 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
8N148W...EXTENDS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST AT 
24N114W. THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS NEAR 28N125W WITH UPPER MOISTURE 
SPREADING NE IN REPINES TO THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY SPILLING E 
ACROSS THE W CONUS. SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES E AND 
SE ALONG THE RIDGE CREST TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA ATTM.  

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N96W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE 
OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 21N102W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING 
SSW TO BASE DEEP IN THE TROPICS AT 9N114W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THE MEXICAN CYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NE OLD MEXICO 
WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N AND NE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF 24N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 
9N65W RIDGING WNW TO A CREST ALONG 17N99W 27N97W 30N85W. EXCEPT 
FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE NEAR THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED 
ABOVE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF THE ITCZ. 
  
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1020 MB IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N122W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 22N135W.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED 
TO 20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT 
SUN...THEN WEAKEN TO MOSTLY 20 KT EARLY MON. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT SUN 
AND TO ABOUT 20 KT MON. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON.

$$
NELSON