000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 3N93W 3N120W 3N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N100W 2N103W 4N130W AND 4N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 114W IS 
MOVING SLOWLY E. THE SYSTEM IS CUTOFF FROM ANY COLD AIR SOURCE 
AND IS CAUGHT BENEATH A RIDGE BUT RECEIVES ENOUGH ENERGY FROM 
THE MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 120W TO CONTINUE IT'S MARCH EWD. THE MID 
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES N OF 20N W OF 130W AS A LARGE TROUGH NW OF 
THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POLAR JET 
SEGMENT FROM 23N150W ACCELERATING NE TO CENTRAL CA..A PORTION OF 
WHICH DIVES S ALONG 120W SUPPLYING ENERGY TO THE ABOVE 
SHORTWAVE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE 
EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND SSMI SHOWS WINDS OF 20 KT WITH 
THE FRONT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1023 MB WAS NEAR 27N123W 
WITH NE TRADES 20 KT FROM 6N TO 16N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY LIGHT..AS IS TEHUANTEPEC. OTHER GAP WINDS 
W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AND S OF PANAMA WERE TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E SLOWLY TO 110W 
WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE NW OF THE AREA MOVES RAPIDLY ESE TO 
NEAR 140W. THIS RAPID MOTION IS HELPING BUILD A MID LEVEL RIDGE 
E OF 120W WHICH HAS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TRAPPED. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 NO CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AS IT DRIFTS NNE. THE 
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY 
EWD. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE SWLY 20 TO 25 KT. 
NW SWELL WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT 12 TO 17 FT. LITTLE 
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 2 THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 103W AND 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY THE REGION 
ALONG 132W WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY N OF 20N W 
OF 125W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD 
AND MERGES WITH THE OLD COLD FRONT THEN MOVES TO 30N127W 
20N140W. WINDS DECREASE WITH THE FRONT BUT NW SWELL TO 20 FT 
FOLLOW THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 
120W WITH NE TRADES DECREASING TO MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. BAJA WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT WHILE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT. 
OTHER GAP WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY 15 KT. 

$$
RRG