000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 1N103W 5N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N99W THROUGH 
AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 22N108W AND ANOTHER NEAR 12N110W AND 
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE DEEP INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 5N115W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13N134W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 33N126W 
AND IS ALSO SHIFTING E WITH TIME. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N14W WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 
18N132W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS AT 33N138W 1002 MB WITH A 
COLD S ALONG 32N137W 24N136W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 18N140W 
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONTAINED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
24N131W 32N137W. ADDITIONALLY SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING E 
ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE REGION... 
ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 26N BETWEEN 130W AND 120W. OTHERWISE VERY 
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
106W. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 22N61W HAS A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 15N87W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM 
PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER THE E PAC NEAR 10N110W...CONTINUES TO 
SPREAD NE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N100W TO 27N91W 
WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME WIDENS TO ABOUT 500 NM CENTERED ALONG 
26N932N83W TO WELL 35N70W IN A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N124W 
RIDGES SE TO NEAR 20N105W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 15N140W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE WED AS WELL. 
NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED WEAKEN 
EARLY WED. NW WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ 
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

$$
NELSON