000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 2N79W 5N90W 4N105W 6N112W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 9N108W 
6N114W 5N127W AND JUST W OF THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N142W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N101W THROUGH AN 
EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 27N109W TO A BASE DEEP INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 
7N115W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 17N133W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. A RIDGE EXTENDS N ALONG 26N132W TO WELL BEYOND 33N131W. A 
DEEP LAYERED COMPLEX CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC 
CENTERS WELL DEFINED AT 38N152W AND ANOTHER ILL DEFINED NEAR 
31N149W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE ENHANCED 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY A SURFACE FRONT LIES ALONG 
32N137W 20N144W WITH SHOWERS ENHANCED ALONG THE FRONT. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE BETWEEN THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND RIDGE...BUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPILLS E ACROSS THE 
RIDGE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE REGION...ROUGHLY +TO THE N OF 
26N W OF 123W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING NEAR 
8N90W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS BECOMING THE DOMINATE 
FEATURE NEAR 19N73W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 9N100W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITH 
30 NM OF LINE 9N108W 6N114W 5N127W...SOME DIRECTLY ALONG THE 
ITCZ...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N115W 15N103W WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME 
WIDENS TO ABOUT 600 NM CENTERED ALONG 20N100W TO BEYOND 32N86W 
IN A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N124W RIDGES SE TO 
NEAR 17N106W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 15N136W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
LIES ALONG 32N137W 18N145W. 

GAP WINDS...NLY WIND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS RUNS 
CONTINUE A MINIMAL GALE WELL PAST 48 HOURS. NE TO E WINDS 20-25 
KT IN THE PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE SUN WITH ONE 
MODEL HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE. NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. NLY WINDS 
20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ SHOULD WEAKEN SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON