000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N85W 4N93W 6N104W 5N115W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 6N97W 6N108W.
    
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N120W MOVING E WITH A WEAK 
UPPER TROUGH S TO A BASE NEAR 8N130W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS 
AMPLIFYING NE TO AN UNSTABLE CREST NEAR 35N137W. A MOISTURE 
PLUME IS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MOST OF THE 
MOISTURE NOW SPILLING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 
128W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE NW 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONE COVERING THE AREA FROM 29N TO 36N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 113W. 

A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 7N92W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 7N129W AND PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED A 
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG 7N BETWEEN 97W AND 124W. MOST OF 
ACTIVITY HAVE DECREASED W OF 108W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE W OF 110W REMAINING BETWEEN 4N AND 8N...BUT IS 
EVAPORATING WITH TIME. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CURRENT ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE TO NEAR 13N91W...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR 
THAT IT WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO THE GUATEMALAN 
COAST. A TROPICAL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
TO NEAR 7N88W WITH THE UPPER LEVELS APPEARING DRY E OF 94W.

IN 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA W 124W 
WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC INTO A SHARP TROUGH FROM 
32N114W TO THE EQUATOR AT 130W. THE TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE 
CONTINUES NEAR 6N93W AND DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 105W 
WITH A STRONG SW JET ACROSS NW MEXICO BECOMING ZONAL OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.    

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 42 HOURS. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR ANOTHER 30 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON