000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 7N83W 4N95W 8N110W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN N 
PAC THIS AFTERNOON. CUTOFF LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NRN MEXICO 
AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
TO THE SW TO NEAR 13N140W. WIDESPREAD MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS IS 
APPARENT ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH E OF 120W. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS 
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOWING UP IN MORNING QUIKSCAT 
DATA FROM 6N117W TO 14N109W.

TO THE NW OF OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS 
BUILDING OVER OVER THE U.S. W COAST...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER 
TROUGH DIGGING N OF 30N ROUGHLY ALONG 145W. A 1030 MB SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
35N127W AND IS SHIFTING S. QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
ARE SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS W 
OF 115W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OFFSHORE FLOW CREATING CLEAR 
SKIES OFF THE BAJA COAST OUT 500 NM...THEN LARGE AREAS OF 
STRATOCUMULUS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW IS  PUSHING E TOWARD THE AREA. THIS 
IS PROGGED TO STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO PUSH 
INTO NW FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

STRONG N TO NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS COLD 
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
NEAR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOW GAP WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE TO 
20 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MMMT AND MMIT SHOW WINDS 
STARTING TO INCREASE AS WELL TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
OVER TEHUANTEPEC AREA TO GALE FORCE BY LATE THU. FURTHER 
S...MORNING QUIKSCAT SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW OVER GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ALSO PERSISTING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN