000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0505 UTC TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N95W 5N110W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED AT 31N125W HAS 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO 11N130W.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT WITHIN 
300 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS DUE TO AXIS SUBSIDENCE.  ON LEE SIDE OF 
TROUGH...ACCELERATING JET CORE REACHING 170 KT OVER SW CONUS 
CAUSING ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  

ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY FLATTENED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST S OF 
10N W OF 110W IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES N OF AREA OFF CONUS W COAST PRESSES 
WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ITS GULF WITH LOCALIZED HIGH 
WIND SPEED BUT LESS THAN EXPECTED SEAS DUE TO LACK OF FETCH AND 
DURATION.  RIDGE LIKELY TO BE FORCED SE BY UPSTREAM COLD FRONT 
WELL NW OF FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS 
ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEXT 48 HRS.  

APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF AREA INCREASING SE TO S FLOW W OF 
130W N OF 25N AT THE SAME TIME LARGE NW SWELL WILL START 
REACHING NW CORNER WITHIN 36 HRS.  

CARIBBEAN BASIN TRADE WINDS SPILLING OVER ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO GAP INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 
FT.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N GAP WINDS TO INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS 
REACHING 25-30 KT BY 48 HRS BEFORE WEAKENING. 

$$
WALLY BARNES