000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N90W 6N125W 5N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
JUST S OF THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW 
TO 20N133W. THE LOW IS BETWEEN TWO MID/UPPER RIDGES ALLOWING
FOR IT TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N139W AND THE SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A 
STRONG TRADE WIND REGIME WITH WINDS MAXING OUT AS HIGH AS 30 KT. 
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW AS SEEN IN UPPER AIR DATA IS
INTRUDING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION TO THE NW OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. THIS FLOW IS COMING IN OVER THE TOP OF
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS MOVED ALONG THE WRN BORDER OF
THE REGION N OF 18.5N AND W OF 134W.

A VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 14N124.5W
NE ALONG 18N117W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF NRN 
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT WITHIN 
400 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS 
THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO AS HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST 
FEW WEEKS.

FARTHER E...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. A 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM NEAR 
ACAPULCO MEXICO SWD TO NEAR 8N101W...BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDINESS. BROKEN TO 
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER 
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE COLOMBIAN COAST IS 
SPREADING WWD FROM 2N-7N E OF 83W.

MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER 
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS ARE ALSO 
UP TO 30 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS AND TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS. GULF OF 
PANAMA WINDS ARE BLOWING OUT OF THE N 20-25 KT AND SHOULD 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24-36 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE