000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 4N110W 6N133W 5N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 3N91W 6N93W 5N95W 7N131W AND 
6N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION N OF 10N W OF 
110W. THE TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG CLOSED LOW CENTERED 
32N120W AND MOVING SSE 10 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE BULGES IN FROM THE MID PACIFIC OVER 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. OVER THE  EXTREME SE CORNER 
OF THE REGION ANOTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W OVER SRN MEXICO 
TO 105W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC HIGH 
1033 MB WAS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W. THE HIGH 
IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 25 TO 30 KT W OF 120W AN N OF 7N 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. A GALE CONDITION 
EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS 30 TO 
35 KT. ELSEWHERE W OF CENTRAL AMERICA GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 KT 
ARE EVIDENT W OF NICARAGUA..EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT MOSTLY NW 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTY NE 
WINDS S OF PANAMA TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AT MID LEVELS 
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING SSE ALONG THE NRN BAJA COAST. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 NO CHANGE TO THE MID PACIFIC HIGH AND NE 
TRADES W OF 120W N OF 7N WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AT 20 TO 30 KT 
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. WINDS ALONG BAJA REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AND 
GUSTY NE WINDS W OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALSO GUSTY TO 25 KT. GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE..WHILE PANAMA WINDS 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 20 TO 25KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY E OVER 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF MEXICO WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH 
BACK TO 15N135W. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE MARINE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN MEXICO WEAKENS 
SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES SW TO NEAR 31N138W WHILE 
MAINTAINING IT'S STRENGTH AT 1033 MB. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT. NE TRADES N OF 7N W OF 120W 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 20 TO 25 
KT AS DOES GAP WINDS W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME GUSTY WINDS 
THROUGH PANAMA AT 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE.

$$
RRG