000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 4N90W 5N110W 7N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED OVER THE WRN U.S. HAS MOVED E 
ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NM SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N. 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES FROM 17N140W NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA 
WHERE IT PHASES WITH THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE W SIDE OF THE BASE OF 
THE LARGER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO 26N140W AND IS 
INCREASING THE SUBSIDENCE TO THE N OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A 
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND 
CONTINUES TO PUMP COOLER AIR SWD INTO THE AREA WITH A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD W OF BAJA. THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WHICH 
FIRST USHERED IN THIS AIR MASS IS NOW OVER THE DESERT SW...WITH 
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER SW TO 
CENTRAL BAJA. TEMPERATURES SE OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO NEAR 70F IN 
CITIES LIKE GUAYMAS...BUT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID-50S OVER 
EXTREME NW MEXICO.

OPPOSITE STORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FARTHER E NEAR CENTRAL 
AMERICA. EXTENSIVE RIDGE SYSTEM HAS SET UP FROM THE FAR E 
PACIFIC WATERS NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE STILL PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR SKIES E 
OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
STEADY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IN TURN HAS KEPT THE 
GAP FLOWS CRANKING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN 
LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
BERG