000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 6N93W 4N108W 7N124W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
117W-122W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
136W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 136W WITH A 90 KT 
JET STREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM 24N140W SE TO 
17N120W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS STREAMING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE...AND THE 
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY LIES MAINLY N OF 15N. THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET DIVES SE INTO THE BASE OF AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH 
STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW STATES TO 30N118W THEN SE WELL 
INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR EQ106W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR TIJUANA MEXICO SW TO 27N120W (JUST AHEAD OF 
THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION) ALTHOUGH A TRAILING BOUNDARY DOES 
EXTEND FARTHER W/NW TO 30N138W. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS QUITE 
SHARP S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE RESULTANT UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE/LIFT IS CAUSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO STREAM 
NE INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN MANZANILLO 
AND THE SRN PART OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE 
THEN CONTINUES NE INTO THE S/CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE US. THERE IS 
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THIS MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST...WHICH ARE THEN MOVING 
NE AND INLAND BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND CIUDAD OBREGON ON THE 
MAINLAND.

FARTHER E...MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE WATERS EXTENDING S TO THE EQUATOR WITH UPPER 
LEVEL SWLYS ABOVE THAT. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS CENTERED 
OVER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A RIDGE AXIS SWWD TO 
10N110W...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OCCURRING E OF 100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS FROM 
PANAMA TO TEHUANTEPEC. MAXIMUM WINDS OVER THE GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE TO 30 KT AND ARE TO 25 KT OVER THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA IN THE COMING DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN HIGHER OVER THE 
OTHER TWO GULFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
BERG