000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 6N86W 4N96W 7N120W 5N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 
111W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE W COAST OF THE UNITED 
STATES WITH A CUT-OFF LOW S OF THE STRONGEST FLOW...ABOUT 350 NM 
SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET TO THE W OF THE CUT-OFF LOW IS ABOUT 110 KT...AND IS DIVING 
S UNDER THE LOW AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. 
AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS CENTERED 
NEAR THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS IN A BAND BETWEEN 110W-120W 
STREAMING N INTO NW MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH...THE SURFACE 
RIDGE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED AT THE MOMENT WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE 
LOW CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO 27N125W.

FARTHER E...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER HIGH 
CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 9N97W. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR 
SKIES. HOWEVER...THE GAP FLOWS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT 
AND THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE/STRONG OUT OF THE NE. GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE STILL AT STORM FORCE BUT ARE EXPECTED 
TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY THU AFTERNOON (WITHIN 
24 HRS). WINDS ARE ALSO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND TO 
25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN 
STATUS QUO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS/HIGH PRES 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG