000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 9 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N78W 5N100W 8N110W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 106W AND 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 31N129W TO 15N126W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH DRY AIR 
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATE A 95-110 KT NW JET STREAM ON THE W SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N140W TO 12N128W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM THE ITCZ. BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER NORHTHERN MEXICO WITH AN EMBEDDED 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO FROM 23N103W TO 13N101W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA
WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC N OF THE ITCZ E OF 93W.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N129W TO 10N129W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRES 
OVER NE MEXICO IS PRODUCING A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ACORSS WESTERN 
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

$$
DGS