000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 5N90W 6N102W 7N118W 5N132W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN U.S. IS CENTERED NEAR 28N111W. FURTHER WEST AN UPPER RIDGE 
IS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG 32N. OVER THE 
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC A WELL DEFINED SUBTROPICAL JET IS PRESENT JUST 
S OF 20N FROM 135W EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N135W
TO 20N110W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
QUIKSCAT WINDS THIS MORNING CONFIRMED WINDS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE.
THE NWW3 MODEL IS NOT DOING PARTICULARLY WELL FOR THIS WIND EVENT... 
CONSISTENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND OBSERVATIONS. BUT WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REQUIRED 
FOR THE GAP WIND MECHANISM. STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE 
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO WE 
SHOULD SEE SWELLS GENERATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
SHOWING UP EAST OF 100W.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING BAJA AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL ARRIVE FRI MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS 
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WEST 
COAST OF BAJA AND UP TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GALES 
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A 1044 MB HIGH MAKING ITS APPEARANCE IN ABOUT 
48 HOURS NEAR 37N142E WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CALIF COAST 
THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$
MUNDELL