000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...3N77W 6N100W 6N126W 4N104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ROUGHLY NE-SW FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO 
THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS...TO NEAR 20N112W. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR 
BEHIND THE TROUGH IS KEEPING SKIES CLOUD FREE OVER BAJA AND THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND COASTAL STATIONS 
AROUND BAJA FROM THIS EVENING REPORTING ONLY MODERATE NLY FLOW. 
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL PLUNGE SE 
INTO NW MEXICO THROUGH MON...INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MMMT ON THE GULF 
OF MEXICO SIDE AND AT MMIT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS 
CONTINUE TO REPORT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. NO OVER WATER DATA IS 
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WINDS 
COULD BE INCREASING TO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT JUST BELOW GALE FORCE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN MEXICO 
SHIFTS E...THEN WEAKEN STARTING BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE 
N DIMINISHES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE SAME IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA TO 90W 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO LATE IN THE 
WEEK.

FURTHER W...DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 9N120W TO 29N135W. 
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE RIDGE AND E OF HAWAII NEAR 
18N145W. UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ W OF 133W. AT THE 
SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N132W. FRESH TO 
STRONG ELY TRADES PERSIST S OF THE SFC HIGH. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE 
WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA DIGS 
SE...ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. 
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO LATE WEEK HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL BUILD 
AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...ALLOWING INCREASED NELY WINDS W OF 130W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN