000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051625
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NOW INLAND. 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE 1011 MB.  HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES 
IN ITS VICINITY.  NO FURTHER ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED ON SYSTEM.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOW NO ORGANIZATION.  UPPER ENVIRONMENT 
NOT SUITABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. 

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...7N82W 
10N101W  10N140W.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM
OF AXIS E OF 96W. 

...DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WRN EDGE OF E PAC BASIN 
WITH INCREASING JET SPEEDS ADVECTING MOISTURE N OF 25N.  
OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N W OF 
130W WHERE SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 13N132W COVER AREA. 

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 26N117W HAS WEAK TROUGH DIG 
S ALONG 122W BETWEEN ABOVE MENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED AT 16N95W BUT EXTENDING INFLUENCE 
E-W FROM 120W TO COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  SRN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND 
CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO E PAC ITCZ JUST SHORT OF 100W.  STRONG NE 
WINDS ALOFT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED DEEP 
CONVECTION...BUT EQUATORIAL TROUGH PRESENTS VERY ACTIVE SCENARIO 
AND HAS GFS SOLUTION WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS 
MEANDERING IN AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...
PAC RIDGE WEAKENED BY COLD FRONT CLOSING IN 140W SUPPORTED BY 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS WEAKENED NE TRADE WINDS BUT HAS KEPT 
STRONG N WINDS BRUSHING COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA WITH 
ASSOCIATED MODERATE N SWELLS.  

STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL S WINDS ASSISTING IN PROVIDING WARM  
MOIST S OF 5N E OF 90W...POSSIBLE ENHANCED BY LOW PRESSURES 
ALONG EQUATORIAL TROUGH.   
  
$$
WALLY BARNES