000 AXNT20 KNHC 010509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0509 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 62.5W south of 21N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14.5N to 19N between 60W and 67W. Latest satellite-derived winds show that moderate to fresh winds accompany this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 13N between 20W to 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is analyzed over western Mississippi, with its associated ridging stretching east-southeastward across the basin. Its related gradient is generally allowing gentle to moderate northerly winds across the basin. East of 90W, 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. West of 90W, 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight producing in general a light to gentle northerly wind flow. Winds will veer to the SE and S over the western Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico by Sun morning, and from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek across the western Gulf, but linger in the eastern Gulf due to a tight gradient. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean. A trough extends from eastern Cuba to 16N76W. Scattered moderate convection is found along the trough and over the SW Caribbean. Latest ASCAT satellite data pass reveals moderate to fresh north winds off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, and moderate northeast winds north of the trough. ASCAT also depicted fresh trades over the south-central part of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 2 to 4 ft east of 80W and 4 to 6 ft west of 80W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat, in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat night as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave may reach the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W to 22N73W over the westner Atlantic. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N59W to 21N72W, where it transitions to a trough that stretches to eastern Cuba. Latest ASCAT depicted moderate to fresh SW winds north of 28N, along the trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also seen north of the front, south of 23.5N. Seas 8 to 12 ft are found north of 28N between 54W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along these features. Farther to the east, a cold front extends from 31N30W to 28N38W. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 30N26W to near 25N32.5W. Fresh to strong winds are present in the vicinity of these features according to the latest ASCAT. In addition, numerous moderate convection is depicted north of 25N between 23W and 34W. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high center near 25N53W, covers the region. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front over the western will gradually dissipate by tonight, then shift westward as a remnant trough through Mon. Rough to very rough seas generated by Post- Tropical Cyclone Melissa that are still affecting the NE waters will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean with building high pressure to the NE. $$ KRV