000 AXNT20 KNHC 280001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.6N 78.6W at 28/0000 UTC or 130 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica, moving NW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt. Peak seas near the center of Melissa are near 35 ft. Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite imagery, with a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center. The hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the Caribbean west of 70W. Melissa is now moving toward the northwest. A slow turn toward the north is expected this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica late tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Based on visible satellite, precipitable water, and AI Tropical Wave Diagnostics, a tropical wave was added to the surface map along 42W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Currently, scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. A second tropical wave is along 55W from 16N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough terminates in the coastal regions of Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ extends from 12N16W to 07N25W to 07N38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 25W and 35W. GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal boundary extends across the northern Gulf waters from a 1010 mb low pressure located over N Florida. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas follow the front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front, affecting parts of the NE Gulf and north-central Florida. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Tue night into Wed and will progress southeastward over the region through late week. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front early Wed through Thu. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind the front in the NW Gulf late Tue night into Wed morning. Winds will likely reach gale force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Wed afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa located over the central Caribbean. Please, read the Special Features section for all the information related to this powerful hurricane. Fresh to strong winds associated with the outer circulation of Melissa cover most of the waters between 70W and 82W. Scatterometer data indicate a band of fresh to strong easterly winds between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Seas are 9 to 13 ft within these winds. Seas 8 ft or greater roughly dominate the waters from 13N to 20N between 73W and 83W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted over the eastern part of the basin while gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are observed over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, Hurricane Melissa will move to 17.1N 78.3W Tue morning, and near 18.2N 77.8W Tue afternoon. Melissa will move N of the Caribbean on Wed, with marine conditions improving through the day. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel by Wed night, and likely western Cuba and the NW Caribbean by Thu morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section for all the information related to Major Hurricane Melissa. A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda to NE Florida. An area of showers and thunderstorms is observed N of 28N W of 72W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are blowing S of the front, covering the area N of 27N and west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed, and runs from 29N40W to 20N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N to 25N between 40W and the trough axis. Weak 1017 mb low pressure is near 29N47W. A swirl of low clouds is related to this feature. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Melissa will move to 17.1N 78.3W Tue morning, inland to 18.2N 77.8W Tue afternoon, 19.8N 76.6W Wed morning, 21.8N 75.0W Wed afternoon, 24.3N 72.9W Thu morning, and 27.8N 69.9W Thu afternoon. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves N of the area near 37.1N 60.0W Fri afternoon. A low pressure system will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. tonight, leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the system offshore of northern Florida Tue through midweek. Rough seas will build over this region by early Tue, with seas expanding farther south and east Tue and Wed. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. by late week, supporting increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic. $$ GR