227 AXNT20 KNHC 260619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Melissa, a Category 3 Hurricane is centered near 16.4N 75.9W at 26/0300 UTC or 110 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica. It is drifting W at 3 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure of 967 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft near the center. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are occurring up to 50 nm from the center. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are seen farther east and southeast from 13N to 17N between 71W and 74W. A slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to the N and NE is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring Melissa near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Continue rapid intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week. Melissa is expected to bring very heavy rain to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica to at least Wednesday. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. Heavy rainfall is also expected for eastern Cuba through at least Wednesday, causing possible life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 20N southwestward, and moving northwestward at 5 to 10 kt, as it is interacting with an upper-level trough in the vicinity. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 20N between 41W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then extends southwestward to 09N24W. An ITCZ curves westward from 09N24W to 07N35W to 09N45W, then resumes from 11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03N to 11N between 26W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 10N between the coast of Guinea-Bissau/north Liberia and 20W. The tail end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters off Nicaragua and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Two surface troughs are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near New Orleans, and patchy showers north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, surface ridging extending southwestward from a 1031 mb high at the US Mid-Atlantic coast is supporting gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft for the western and south-central basin. Tight gradient between this high and Hurricane Melissa at the central Caribbean is causing fresh to strong ENE to SE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the eastern Gulf will continue into early Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in the central and western Gulf into Sun morning as a low pressure system moves through the southern United States. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sun into Mon and drift southeastward, leading to moderate N to NE winds over the basin through early next week. Looking ahead, a stronger reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night and sweep through the southeastern Gulf by Thu night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds may reach gale force along the coast of Mexico off Tampico Wed evening, and off Veracruz Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about Melissa, which is a Category 3 Hurricane. Convergent NE winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient between Hurricane Melissa and strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic US States supports fresh to locally strong NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Outside the core of Melissa, fresh to near-gale winds and 8 to 14 ft seas are present at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen across the south-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate SW to NW to N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Hurricane Melissa will move to 16.4N 76.4W Sun morning, 16.4N 77.0W Sun evening, and then 16.6N 77.5W Mon morning. Afterward, it will reach 17.2N 77.7W Mon evening, inland to 18.0N 77.2W Tue morning, and then 19.4N 76.1W Tue evening. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves across the southeast Bahamas late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W to near the northwest Bahamas. Isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 40 nm north of this feature. Farther southeast, a surface trough is coupling with a broad upper-level trough to generate widely scattered moderate convection from 19N to 25N between 59W and 70W. In the central Atlantic, another upper-level trough is producing similar convection from 20N to 26N between 30W and 42W. To the north, another surface trough is creating patchy showers north of 29N between 29W and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. Tight gradient between a 1031 mb high at the US Mid-Atlantic coast and Hurricane Melissa at the central Caribbean is causing fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas from the Great Bahama Bank northwestward across the Bahamas to off central Florida. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in moderate to large NE swell are evident north of 20N between 35W and just east of the Bahamas and northeastern Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to occasionally strong E to NE winds and rough seas will occur west of 70W through Sun morning. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Sun into early next week as the frontal boundary lifts northward. A weak front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue then stall and dissipate, ahead of a stronger reinforcing front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late Wed. Farther south, Major Hurricane Melissa will continue to rapidly strengthen in the central Caribbean near Jamaica. Melissa is forecast to move across eastern Cuba late Tue into Wed, then pass over the southern Bahamas late Wed into Thu, before rapidly moving to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu. $$ Chan