000 AXNT20 KNHC 242331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Oct 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16.0N 74.3W at 24/2100 UTC or about 190 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 17 ft just northeast of the center. Satellite imagery quite impressively shows numerous strong conevection within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in wide banding features are within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle and within 240 nm of the center in\ the SW quadrant. The latest forecast calls for a turn to the west on Sat, and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tue and Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sun. Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti.Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near 19N41W to 13N42W to 06N43W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 39W and the wave, and from 13N to 17N between 34W and the wave. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong east winds in the vicinity of this wave generally from 10N to 15N between 38W and 43W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 107N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N24W and to 08N38W. It resumes west of the tropical wave at 10N45W and to 09N59W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 35W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A pair of surface troughs in the W to SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche are supporting scattered showers near each trough axis. High pressure in place across the basin supports moderate to fresh east winds in the eastern half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft in the eastern half of the Gulf, to 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers are over some sections of the NW Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east winds are expected over the eastern Gulf, including through the Florida Straits, through Sun morning as high pressure strengthens over the eastern United States. Locally rough seas may accompany these winds, especially over the Florida Straits. Over the central and western basin, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will occur into Sun as a complex low pressure system moves through the southern United States. Winds and seas are expected to diminish early next week as week ridging builds over the basin. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Melissa. Fresh to strong east winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are over most of the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is generally under gentle to moderate winds around the periphery of Tropical Storm Melissa along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Melissa is near 16.0N 74.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sun. A turn to the west is forecast on Sat and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 74.4W Sat morning, move to 16.4N 74.8W Sat afternoon, 16.5N 75.5W Sun morning, 16.5N 76.0W Sun afternoon, 16.5N 76.6W Mon morning, and 16.8N 77.4W Mon afternoon. Melissa will move inland over 17.9N 77.4W Tue afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N69W to 28N74W and to South Florida. High pressure is northwest of the front while a cold front is just offshore southeastern Georgia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 60 to 120 nm east of the front from 28N to 30N. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates that fresh northeast winds are northwest of the stationary front to near 30N. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are north of 30N and west of 74W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are northwest of the stationary front. To the southeast of the stationary front, a trough extends from near 30N67W to the southeastern Bahamas. An area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 26N between 59W and the trough. Farther east, another cold front is analyzed from near 31N26W to 24N39W, then transitions to a stationary front to near 20N49W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of much of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate northwest winds and moderate seas follow this front. A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low that is near 38N34W southwestward to 29N38w and west-northwestward to 30N49W. Fresh northwest to north winds are north of 30N and west of the trough to near 42W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in north swell within this area of winds. Away from frontal boundaries, the enhanced pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean and a 1023 mb high near 34N71W supports fresh to strong east winds and 6 to 8 ft seas mainly south of about 27N and west of 60W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to locally fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur over the Bahamas and offshore of Florida through Sun morning as an increasing pressure gradient develops between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean, a cold front pushing off the southeastern United States, and high pressure building in the eastern U.S. Rough seas will accompany these strong winds, including through the Florida Straits. Winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Sun, however, locally strong winds may redevelop offshore of Florida into the northern Bahamas late this weekend ahead of a low pressure system moving through the southeastern U.S. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16.0N 74.3W in the central Caribbean. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday. Melissa may move over Cuba into the western Atlantic early next week, supporting increasing winds and building seas over this region. $$ Aguirre