000 AXNT20 KNHC 220930 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.3N 73.5W at 22/0900 UTC or 270 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near the center to 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 12N to 15N between 70W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 24N between 67W and 75W. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days, generating dangerous surf. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides. Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected, also with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W, south of 14N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave along 30W extends south of 15N, and is nearly stationary. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enter the Atlantic Ocean near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N29W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 22W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends over the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft prevail over the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the front will shift southward and extend from north central Florida to the Texas coast Wednesday evening then stall from the Florida Keys to Louisiana by Fri morning where it will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase over the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the building high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a Tropical Storm Melissa. Impacts from Tropical Storm Melissa dominates the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-9 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-5 ft, prevail over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, Melissa will move to 14.7N 74.3W this afternoon, 15.2N 74.9W Thu morning, 15.6N 75.1W Thu afternoon, 16.0N 75.2W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.3N 75.3W Fri afternoon, and 16.7N 75.5W Sat morning. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 76.0W early Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from 31N72W to 28N76W. Another trough extends from 31N35W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of this trough. Moderate winds and rough seas prevail N of 30N on either side of the trough. High pressure prevails over the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters and TS Melissa in the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters S of 22N between 55W and 72W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida this morning, continue to move southeastward through mid week, then stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Fri night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary Fri through Sun. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Melissa continues to develop in the central Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and west of 70W, with rough seas by Sun near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. $$ AL