000 AXNT20 KNHC 202316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Oct 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W, a few hundred miles west of the Windward Islands, is producing a large and concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. This system is moving quickly westward around 20 kt, which should limit significant development during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with locally gusty winds to gale force, along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany this wave as it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean this week. Peak sustained winds are SE 30-35 kt in the E semicircle, along with seas to 10 ft. There is a high chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale warning. For more information on the possible tropical development of this system, please see the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W, from 13N southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-14N between 22W-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, from 14N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection currently is occurring in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest AL98) has its axis near 68W, from 20N southward. This wave is moving westward near 20 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on this wave. A another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has its axis near 79W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N and west of 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N30W, then resumes from near 07.5N34W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-14N between 23W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 06N-10N west of 52W. No monsoon trough exists over the tropical Atlantic today. The Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean at 11N75W to low pressure 1009 mb near 10.5N79W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south of 14N west of 77W, partly in association with a tropical wave. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area southwestward to 25N91W, where it transitions to a stationary front to coastal Texas near 28.5N96W. A few isolated clusters of moderate convection are over the Gulf from 24N to 25.5N between 84W and 87.5W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is located over western Georgia near 33N84W and extends a broad ridge southward to the front, and is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds north of the front and east of 90W, where seas are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere north of the front moderate winds veer from E to SE with seas around 3 ft. South of the front the winds are gentle to light. For the forecast, the cold front across northern Florida and eastern Gulf will progress farther southeastward through this evening, then stall over southern Florida and southeastern Gulf on Tue. The entire frontal boundary should gradually weaken and dissipate on Tue. Moderate N to NE winds are expected north of the front. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake of this front, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas over the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical wave with an associated gale warning. Satellite imagery this afternoon and evening shows numerous squalls across the central Caribbean ahead of the wave axis. Outside of the gale warning discussed above, fresh to strong E trade winds are present over the south central Caribbean, behind the tropical wave, where seas are 5-8 ft. Over the western and north central Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. For the forecast, a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W is moving quickly westward around 20 kt, which should limit significant development during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with locally gusty winds to gale force, along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany this wave as it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean this week. There is a high chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are expected in the south-central basin this evening, and will gradually diminish tonight through Tue. Rough seas in N swell will subside through the Atlantic passages tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to central Florida near Cape Canaveral. A surface trough is to the southeast of the front, from 29N77W to the N coast of Cuba near 23N80.5W. Isolated moderate convection is wihtin 180 nm either side of the trough and SE of the front. High pressure NW of the front is promoting moderate N t NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the front. East of there, an old frontal boundary in the form of a surface trough extends from 28N52W to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 NM south of the trough axis. Elsewhere, there is a 1020 mb Bermuda High near 30N66W and a 1022 mb Azores High at 30,5N30W, split by the aforementioned trough. The weak pressure gradient between these highs and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to occasionally fresh trades south of 22N. Seas are 7-10 ft south of 25N between 40W-65W due to wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical north Atlantic winds are moderate or weaker. North of 25N between 40W-65W seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell. Remainder of waters, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, widespread rough seas east of 65W will subside from northwest to southeast through tonight. The cold front off northeast Florida will move slowly southeastward tonight with winds behind it gradually diminishing. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of 23N as a strong tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters. $$ Stripling